W11_EY_Independent Estimated Completion Date of Paper Project


  1. Problem Definition

As one of the requirement to attend the Certified Cost Professional (CCP) is to develop 2500 word at minimum) technical paper. In this AACE Certification preparation course, one of the project study is to develop that technical paper. Since the workload from external (Project sponsor and personal matter) and the paper schedule is overdue now then Author will do the assessment to make a decision what is the plan need to propose and what is the action need to take whether to re baseline or to de-scope this project. In this case Author will do the assessment on independent estimated completion date (IECD).

Based on weekly report and performance data as of Week 11 information, the paper project data are as the following:

EY11 tab1

Table.1 Paper Project Man-hour Plan vs Actual

Based on above data the project performance and deliverable on was decreased significantly

 

  1. Development of Feasible Alternatives.

The IECD is to predictive the project completion date based on future schedule performance being consistently with past schedule performance [1]. In this case Author will know the paper project completion date (estimated).  The component for IECD could refer as the following on figure 1.

EY11 fig1

Figure. 1 Component of an IECD [1]

  1. Development of the Outcomes for Alternative

Firstly, Author need to see the current paper project performance/figure as indicated table below:

EY11 tab2

Table.2 Original Budget vs Actual Cost to date

EY11 tab3

Table.3 Earned Value Analisys

Based on above table, it indicated my paper project in the serious problem where the SPI was dropped to the critical level (0.63). In this case the paper project will not be finish on time as plan and the re-baseline is significantly required

To mitigate this problem, Author will do the assessment what is the independent estimated completion date (IECD) should be for this paper project. With refer to all the data above we can develop the table and chart as the following

EY11 tab4

Table. 4 Data Project Performance by Weeks

EY11 fig2

Figure 2. Paper Project Performance Chart

Based on equation on figure 1 above then:

Plan Start (PS) = Week 1 (08 Mar2015)

Plan Duration (PD) = 12 Weeks (8 Mar to 24 May 2015) = 78 days

SPI = 0.63

IEDC = PS + (PD/SPI)

= 08 March + (78 days/0.63)

= 08 March + 123 days

IEDC (es) = 9 July 2015 (Based on SPI)

This is equal to Week 19, it mean another additional 7 weeks compare to original schedule (Week 12).

Another simply calculation of estimate completion date is based on total number of word count in the paper. Since the requirement to complete the paper by minimum 2500 word and the Author plan to reach the paper at 3000 word, then:

EY11 tab5

Table. 5 Estimate Remaining to Completion

Based on above table, it required another 19 hour to complete the paper project. If I need 5 hour per week it will need another 3 weeks to complete it compare to current plan (Week 12), it mean the paper will finish at Week 15.

  1. Selection of the Acceptable Criteria.

 

Based on data presented above, both method can be apply to predict date of completion of paper project.

  1. Analysis and Comparison of the Alternatives.

Based on data presented above, in case to finish the paper project, it will potentially require another 7 weeks additional time if we refer to IEDC method and it will required another 3 Weeks additional using the word count method.

 

  1. Selection of the Preferred Alternative

Based on comparison above, using the SPI gave the longest additional week compare to the estimate using word count method. In this case additional 3 week potential to select and more realistic in this course. However if we refer to the current schedule where another problem solving project coming on Week 13 it will give more difficult to implement and time arrangement plus another work load from project sponsor need to achieve.  If we refer to total time will spent every week it could be minimum 9 hour per week (5 hour for paper + 2 hour for blog + 2 hour for problem solving). In case to run the remaining course project more focus then to de-scope the paper project is the realistic approach at this time and continue to complete paper after course finish is more reasonable.

  1. Performance Monitoring and Post-Evaluation of Results

De-scoping paper project is strongly required at this time. This approach could save other remaining course program with more focus. As the paper de-scoping already selected, this is will be the starting point to focus on second certification program other than CCP.

Reference:

  1. National Defense Industrial Association. (2014,  March 25). A Guide to Managing Programs Using Predictive Measures, NDIA, Section 2, 37-38. Retrieved from http://www.ndia.org/Divisions/Divisions/IPMD/Documents/WorkingGroups/Predictive_Measures_Guide_IPMD_Review_Copy.pdf
  2. Humphreys, G.C. (2014). Project Management Using Earned Value, Third Edition, Humphreys Associates, Chapter 32, 559-568.
  3. Irawan, H. (2015, May). W9_HI_Estimate at Completion (EAC) of My Paper Project | GARUDA AACE 2015. Retrieved fromhttps://garudaaace2015.wordpress.com/2015/05/01/w9_hi_estimate-at-completion-eac-of-my-paper-project/#comments
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One Response to W11_EY_Independent Estimated Completion Date of Paper Project

  1. drpdg says:

    AWESOME case study Pak Edi and you did a really nice job on your analysis, Unfortunately, I have to agree with your conclusion that you are better off to descope and focus on PASSING your second choice AACE certification then picking up the paper afterwards and finishing it off.

    But regardless, you have demonstrated a very solid understanding of applied Earned Value management and I would really urge you to consider going for your EVP as your second choice. As I recall, there are only 2 EVP’s in Indonesia which would make you truly unique and make you very much in demand.

    Keep up the good work and I hope you will continue your great efforts to make this course successful.

    BR,
    Dr. PDG, Dubai, UAE

    Like

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